Predictive Ecology Community

We are located in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, at the Pacific Forestry Centre. Several lab members are students through Université Laval and are based out of Québec City.

Eliot McIntire

Eliot McIntire

Research Scientist, Natural Resources Canada
Adjunct Professor, University of British Columbia & Université Laval

My research interests lie in applied ecology, conservation and forecasting of a broad array of ecosystems and species. Specifically, I am interested in using modern quantitative techniques to understand the natural complexity of ecosystems, and ultimately, to allow forecasting of organisms and ecosystem processes. I use a variety of quantitative techniques, including Hierarchical Bayes, Spatial Analysis, Landscape Simulation Modeling, Structural Equation Modeling, and Non-Linear Models to achieve the best ecological inference from ecological data. Through each of the systems I study, I strive to understand the ecological processes and to test this understanding by forecasting.

Predictive Ecology Blog Predictive Ecology on GitHub SpaDES

Current Personnel

Tati Micheletti

Dr. Tatiane Micheletti (Postdoctoral Fellow 2018-) Tati is our “integrator”, asking questions about managing land in Canada when there are multiple, conflicting management pressures. She has been specializing in SpaDES model development, bird and caribou forecasting, protected areas optimization, and tradeoffs/synergies across disciplines.

Ana Raymundo

Ana Raymundo (PhD Student 2018-) Ana is working on questions related to forestry and birds across Canada. A student at Laval University, she is currently in Victoria learning the SpaDES ecosystem.

Isolde Lane Shaw

Isolde Lane Shaw (PhD Student 2018-)

Geneviève Degré-Timmons

Geneviève Degré-Timmons (MSc Student 2021-) Geneviève is working on questions related to lichen and caribou in Northwest Territories. A student at Laval University.

Research Professional

Ian Eddy

Ian Eddy (Canadian Forest Service -- Geospatial Scientist 2018 - ) Ian works part time with our team on various topics related to cumulative effects, GIS, SpaDES, modeling and data analytics.

Former Personnel

Ceres Barros

Dr. Ceres Barros (Postdoctoral Fellow 2018-2023) Ceres was working on mixed severity spatial fire modeling and the associated vegetation changes that go with it, as part of the Landscapes in Motion project. She then worked on on ecological forecasting of permafrost, disturbance, and vegetation in Northwest Territories, in a collaboration with the Forest Ecology Lab at Wilfrid Laurier University, as part of the Northern Water Futures project.

Frances Stewart

Dr. Frances Stewart (Postdoctoral Fellow 2019-2021)

Alex Chubaty

Dr. Alex Chubaty (Postdoctoral Fellow 2017)

Alana Clason

Dr. Alana Clason (PhD 2018) Dissertation: Whitebark pine at the northern edge: current constraints and future potential northern distribution under a changing climate. Currently a postdoctoral fellow at the Bulkley Valley Research Centre.

Sarah Bauduin

Dr. Sarah Bauduin (PhD 2017)

Dr. Jean Marchal (PhD 2017)

Sebastien Renard

Sebastien Renard (PhD Student)

Yong Luo

Dr. Yong Luo (Postdoctoral Fellow 2017)

Josh Nowak

Dr. Josh Nowak (PhD 2015)

Mario van Telgen

Mario van Telgen (PhD)

Prior to 2015

  • Émilie Tarroux (Post Doctoral Fellow 2015) Facilitation in the boreal forest.
  • Julien Beguin (PhD 2013) Caribou, harvesting and fire in the North Shore of Quebec.
  • Julia Chacon Labella (PhD - Visiting 2013) Facilitation in semi-arid ecosystems.
  • Christian Roy (PhD - 2011) Continental-scale understanding of duck populations.
  • Pierre Racine (Research Professional 2013) Review of existing modeling platforms
  • Ghislain Rompré (Post Doctoral Fellow 2009) Modeling endangered butterflies.
  • Pamela Garcia-Cournoyer (MSc 2010) Harvesting and conservation in Quebec.
  • Émilie Allard (MSc 2009) Understanding deer movement and habitat use in the Upper Laurentian region.
  • Melanie Smith (MSc 2008) Spatial goshawk modeling.
  • Céline Macabiau (PhD 2009) Spatial population dynamics of spruce grouse in Quebec.
  • Francesca Marucco (PhD 2009) Modeling wolf recolonization in the European Alps. (University of Montana, Supervisor: Dan Pletscher).
  • Motoshi Honda (MSc 2008) Hydrology
  • Alex Fajardo (Post Doctoral Fellow 2006) Facilitation in Chilean mountain ecosystems.

Co-op students

  • Trevor Schiavone (UVic 2015) SpaDES GUI development.
  • Brandon Leech (UVic 2015) SpaDES GUI development.
  • Greg Zhang (UBC 2015) SpaDES developer.
  • Alexander Tso (UBC 2016)
  • Greyson Wang (SFU 2015)
  • Olivia Sung (UBC 2015)